As we near two months since what is now considered the most severe disruption in energy supplies the world has seen in modern times, the effects of the chaos have not struck where the turmoil is taking place.
They are spreading further and further away, across thousands of km to affect the fuel tanks, power networks and shipping routes of the Asia Pacific region.
Since America and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially become closed off to traffic.
Approximately one quarter of the world’s seaborne energy supplies passed through this strait.
Currently, energy supplies passing through this strait average around 3.8 million barrels daily, compared to an original average exceeding 20 million barrels.
The International Energy Agency has described this as the largest energy security challenge in history.
The repercussions for countries down the chain of production are becoming clearer with each passing week.
Asia and the Pacific bear the brunt
An estimated 84% of crude oil and condensate that flowed via the strait in 2024 were destined for markets in Asia.
Countries around the region have scoured their policy manuals, increasing subsidies, reducing fuel use, and requiring government employees to telecommute.
In some cases, steps have been taken even further. On March 24, the Philippines became the first nation to declare a state of energy emergency amid the onset of the conflict.
Japan, whose supply of 95% of crude comes from the Gulf, has asked the government to draw down its oil reserves.
South Korea has only two to four weeks of LNG stored in reserve. Fuel shortages in the region will continue to be felt until mid 2026, with import reliant countries experiencing periods of fuel rationing and price instability.
Fuel panic buying has turned violent in many instances, with people attacking gas station attendants and killing them in some of the reports.
The problem is even more widespread and affects even smaller island nations in the Pacific region, which are highly vulnerable to this threat.
Even Australia, which has relatively larger stockpiles compared to other Pacific countries, has been affected by this problem.
In many regions, diesel prices exceeded the mark of $3 per litre, while about 300 filling stations reported a lack of fuel supply in April.
Australia imports nearly 90% of its petroleum products from Asian refineries using crude from the Gulf of Hormuz.
Australia has very few emergency reserves, only 29 or 30 days of diesel.
War News: US Navy begins mine hunting in Strait of Hormuz as global oil supply hangs
Even a brief respite, reached on 8 April, could not normalize shipping routes.
The Iranians have selectively begun exercising control over shipping through the strait, with vessels being charged a fee of over US$1 million per ship, while the US Navy has instituted its own blockade against Iranian harbours starting from 13 April.
The region is responsible for producing one quarter of global polypropylene and one fifth of global polyethylene, two common plastics that find application all across industries.
IEA expects oil demand in the global market to fall in 2026, the first such contraction after many years, according to their forecasters.
The current dispute that involves the Persian Gulf highlights vulnerabilities in their energy strategy, which have emerged as much in Canberra as in Suva and Seoul.
While diplomatic success or failure may ultimately dictate whether or not any lessons have been learned, one thing is clear that the most economically connected region in the world is still hopelessly reliant on one choke point.
