Donald Trump’s objective in the war in Iran has been to show strength, the early returns suggest the president has failed.
Nearly three weeks after the first US and Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February, the conflict has resulted in more than 2,000 deaths, continued to restrict the Strait of Hormuz and pushed up the cost of oil.
Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader has spurned de escalation efforts and Trump has begun to publicly berate NATO countries for not joining the US in the fight for the Strait of Hormuz.
The problem is that wars like this have winners as well as losers. And the big winner so far is Vladimir Putin.
Brent crude futures were trading at $101 to $103 per barrel on Tuesday. That’s up by roughly 45% from the levels at the time of the conflict’s start as fresh Iranian attacks on the UAE pushed up the cost of crude.
For Russia, a major exporter and funder of the war in Ukraine, this is strategic breathing room. Ukraine and its allies have been saying in plain terms that the Iran conflict is helping Russia.
To put it another way, the official figures do not yet fully reflect the windfall. However, it becomes more difficult to overlook the benefit to the Kremlin if high crude prices continue.
But there is more to these benefits than just money. There is also a shift of diplomatic focus and military power away from Ukraine.
Associated Press reported that air defenses in the West were already being shifted away from Ukraine to deal with the fallout of the Iran conflict.
Trump, meanwhile is suffering the consequences. Diesel prices have risen above $5 per gallon, a rarity for only the second time in US history.
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Reuters reported that Trump had even been told that Iran might strike back against Gulf states and go after Hormuz, though Trump later professed surprise.
For a president, there is no more politically incorrect number, while Trump had hoped to show off his power with a quick, clean demonstration of force.
But instead, he is left to deal with the fallout while the politician benefiting most from the crisis is not in Washington, but in Moscow.
