The Bureau of Meteorology predicts above average rainfall for much of northern Australia and parts of the north coast of New South Wales, indicating that Australia’s soggy start to autumn is likely to continue through March.
However, the broader April to June outlook turns drier for large portions of the country. The north and east continue to experience immediate pressure.
According to the Bureau, a large portion of northern and northeastern Australia is still experiencing widespread rain and severe flooding, with central and southeast Queensland receiving more attention in the coming days.
Major flood warnings have been issued for the Daly, Katherine and Waterhouse rivers in the Northern Territory. Authorities have warned of significant community effects in the affected areas.
The trend is being influenced by an active monsoon trough, which is being fueled by tropical lows, leading to showers, storms and heavy falls.
Bureau’s tropical update indicates that the active monsoon period is expected to persist over northern Australia over the coming week, with a tropical low expected to linger over the Top End.
However, over the fortnight from 14 to 27 March, above average rainfall is expected over most of the tropical north, with at least a 60% chance of unusually high falls over the central Top End and northern Cape York Peninsula.
The Bureau indicates that summer rainfall was 32% above average, with extensive flooding caused by tropical lows over northern and central Australia.
Queensland experienced its wettest summer since 2010-11, while February saw flash and river flooding over Queensland the Northern Territory, South Australia and western NSW, closing hundreds of roads.
There are indications that conditions might improve in the latter part of the season, but at this point in time, there is nothing to suggest that flood affected regions have a lot to be hopeful about.
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Autumn outlook from the Bureau suggests that April to June rainfall will be below average in most parts of the country, except for the far north, the NSW coastal strip and southern Tasmania.
Nevertheless, March is still a wetter leaning month in the north and sea surface temperatures remain well above average off the east coast.
