A diplomatic memo based on American and Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is unconscious and receiving medical treatment in the city of Qom, according to a report published by The Times on Monday.
The memo, shared with Gulf allies, states Khamenei is suffering from a severe condition and is unable to participate in any decision making by the regime.
The assessment, if accurate, would confirm weeks of speculation about who is actually governing Iran as the country wages war against the United States and Israel.
Khamenei, 56, succeeded his father after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in US and Israeli strikes on 28 February, the opening day of the conflict.
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Iranian authorities have confirmed that Mojtaba was wounded in the same airstrike that killed his father, his mother, his wife, and one of his sons.
He has not been seen or heard from directly since the war began. Two written statements attributed to him have been read on Iranian state television, but no audio or video of him speaking has been released.
In those statements, he called for continued military resistance and threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to global shipping.
The mystery deepened this week when a video appearing to show Khamenei entering a war room and examining a map of Israel’s Dimona nuclear facility circulated widely online, only to be identified as AI generated and unverified by any credible source.
The memo is also the first document to publicly identify Khamenei’s location, placing him in Qom, roughly 140 kilometres south of Tehran and a centre of Shiite religious authority.
The city was itself struck by US and Israeli airstrikes on Monday, reportedly killing at least five people. Iranian officials insist Khamenei remains in charge.
But his prolonged absence has fuelled growing questions about whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now holds effective control of the country.
Israeli officials have said the IRGC is running Iran, with one senior Arab official telling Axios the guards are “highly ideological and are ready to die.”
Analysts caution that the power consolidation under way is structural rather than personal, and that the trajectory of the regime is unlikely to change regardless of Khamenei’s condition.
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His father spent decades transforming the Office of the Supreme Leader into a vast institutional command apparatus that does not depend on a single individual.
The intelligence memo also points to preparations in Qom for a large mausoleum for Ali Khamenei, with space for multiple graves, suggesting other family members could be buried there.
Iranian state media had previously said the elder Khamenei would be interred in Mashhad, the city of his birth. The delay in holding a state funeral has drawn scrutiny, given the Shiite tradition of burying the dead promptly.
Wednesday marks 40 days since Ali Khamenei’s death, traditionally the end of the mourning period in Shia Islam.
Opposition groups have claimed Mojtaba Khamenei is in a coma, though none of those claims have been independently confirmed.
Iran has not publicly responded to the intelligence memo. A verified public appearance by the supreme leader would settle the question, but after nearly six weeks of silence, none appears forthcoming.
