Australia is not about to run out of fuel, but the war in Iran has sharply raised the risk around a supply chain Australia already relies on.
Since the conflict began on 28 February 2026, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to less than 10% of pre conflict levels.
This pushed the International Energy Agency to agree to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Oil prices have also risen. Brent closed at $US103.14 a barrel on Friday and analysts warned prices could climb further if the disruption continues.
The risk for Australia is both immediate and built into the system. Liquid fuels still make up more than half of Australia’s final energy demand and official data shows 79% of refined fuel used in 2023 to 2024 came from imports.
This is the highest level on record. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said most of Australia’s petrol comes through supply chains linked to Singapore and Southeast Asia.
This means disruption around Hormuz can still affect Australian supply even though the country is far from the fighting.
Bowen said on 3 March that Australia had 36 days of petrol, 34 days of diesel and 32 days of jet fuel on hand. He said that was the highest level in at least 15 years.
He also said major refiners expected contracted supplies to keep arriving through to May. This week the government moved to release up to 762 million litres of petrol and diesel from domestic reserves to ease local disruptions especially in regional areas where the pressure has been more visible.
Even so, the situation has shown how little room Australia has if a global shock lasts longer than expected.
The country now has only two operating refineries and its stockholding rules were made to improve resilience not to fully meet the IEA benchmark of 90 days of net imports.
Bowen argues those are different tests because the IEA measure is aimed at stocks that can be used in a broader international market response.
Even so, the gap shows how quickly an overseas conflict can become a domestic risk when Australia still depends heavily on imported fuel.
For households, truck operators, farmers and airlines, the first effect is more likely to be higher costs than empty bowsers. Bowen has said there is no immediate threat to supply but he has also made clear that petrol prices in Australia will come under pressure as global oil prices rise.
That leaves Australia in a familiar but uncomfortable position. It may be far from the battlefield, but if turmoil in the Middle East drags on the economic fallout can still reach Australian service stations very quickly.
