Digital rights activists say Tehran is moving beyond temporary shutdowns with plans that could lock most Iranians inside a tightly controlled domestic network.
Iran is preparing for what activists describe as a lasting separation from the global internet and a shift that would turn full access to the wider web into a privilege reserved for people vetted by the state.
The warnings come as the country endures a severe nationwide communications clampdown that has left many residents unable to use common global services and has made it far harder for information to leave the country.
Under the scenario outlined by activists that a limited pool of approved users would be allowed onto a heavily filtered version of the global internet while the broader population would be pushed onto a so called national internet that relies on domestically hosted platforms and services that are easier for authorities to monitor and restrict.
Iranian officials have not publicly confirmed any plan to make the current limits permanent. The extent of the current disruption is highlighted by connectivity data.
Iran’s connectivity increased only marginally after more than 200 hours, staying at about 2% of normal levels with no indication of a significant recovery, according to NetBlocks which is a company that tracks internet access worldwide.
The restrictions intensified after large protests that erupted in late December with a crackdown that Iran’s government has blamed on what it calls violent groups backed by foreign powers.
A US based rights monitor, the Human Rights Activists News Agency has put the death toll at more than 3,000, a figure that cannot be independently verified.
Some Iranians have tried to work around the shutdown using satellite internet including Starlink terminals that are operating clandestinely despite legal restrictions and efforts to suppress access.
This kind of patchy workaround however, is unlikely to replace normal connectivity for a population of tens of millions.
